<\/span><\/h2>\nCon ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ghi nh\u1edb nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i (social debts) trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i, v\u00e0 v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u01b0u ti\u00ean h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c th\u00e2n thi\u1ebft (closely bonded partners). C\u00e1c lo\u00e0i linh tr\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ng\u01b0\u1eddi (Non-human primates) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh l\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u1ea3 h\u1ecd h\u00e0ng th\u00e2n th\u00edch ho\u1eb7c v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t d\u00f2ng d\u00f5i, v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh vi gi\u00fap \u00edch. Tuy nhi\u00ean, hi\u1ec7n nay ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta v\u1eabn c\u00f2n \u0111ang tranh lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ghi nh\u1edb c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 hay kh\u00f4ng, v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u00ec li\u1ec7u ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00f3 trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i kh\u00f4ng, hay s\u1ebd b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh m\u1ecdi trao \u0111\u1ed5i trong m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n ch\u1ea1m tr\u00e1n\/g\u1eb7p g\u1ee1 duy nh\u1ea5t (single encounter). Trong nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng 3000 gi\u1edd c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng l\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i ti\u00eau \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ea3 ng\u00e0y lo\u00e0i tinh tinh hoang d\u00e3 (Pan troglodytes verus<\/em>) \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u tra xem li\u1ec7u tinh tinh \u0111\u1ef1c v\u00e0 tinh tinh c\u00e1i c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng (grooming) trong m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c duy nh\u1ea5t hay kh\u00f4ng. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng h\u01a1n khi \u0111o trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i, thay v\u00ec tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf t\u1ee9c th\u1eddi ho\u1eb7c ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Vi\u1ec7c cung c\u1ea5p ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 chung c\u00e1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u00f9ng s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng trong ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 v\u00e0 h\u1ecd h\u00e0ng d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 trao \u0111\u1ed5i mang t\u00ednh qua l\u1ea1i\/t\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ed7 cao n\u00e0y. Nh\u1eefng l\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i ti\u00eau \u0111i\u1ec3m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thu th\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 ri\u00eang l\u1ebb \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng trung b\u00ecnh m\u1ed7i m\u1ed9t c\u1eb7p c\u1ee9 7 ng\u00e0y l\u1ea1i v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n. C\u00e1c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng tinh tinh, gi\u1ed1ng con ng\u01b0\u1eddi, c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ghi nh\u1edb nh\u1eefng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, \u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian m\u1ed9t tu\u1ea7n, v\u00e0 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 qua nh\u1eefng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c l\u1eb7p \u0111i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
<\/span>Gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\nS\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p\/c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edbc nay v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ch\u00ednh b\u1edfi th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft cho r\u1eb1ng v\u00ec vi\u1ec7c gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ee1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mang nh\u1eefng \u00fd ngh\u0129a nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn k\u00ed \u1ee9c v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn, n\u00ean n\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n cho nh\u1eefng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu\/kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfn h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh trao \u0111\u1ed5i \u1edf con ng\u01b0\u1eddi. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 l\u00f2ng v\u1ecb tha c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i\/t\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ed7 cho r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu vi\u1ec7c cho \u0111i c\u00f2n t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c nh\u1eadn l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p nhi\u1ec1u d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 (t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 h\u00e0nh vi h\u1eefu \u00edch) ho\u1eb7c nhi\u1ec1u ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c h\u01a1n cho nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u00e0 h\u1ecd nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5t, th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh vi gi\u00fap \u00edch ho\u1eb7c cung c\u1ea5p ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh ti\u1ebfn h\u00f3a.<\/p>\n
Kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch th\u1eddi gian gi\u1eefa ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 hay ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p\/c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i. Khi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u h\u00e0nh vi trao \u0111\u1ed5i, vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ecdn m\u1ed9t khung th\u1eddi gian kh\u00f4ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p\/c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm ra nh\u1eefng bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p thi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng trong ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y (t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa vi\u1ec7c cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn) ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn sai l\u1ea7m v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 v\u1eafng m\u1eb7t c\u1ee7a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p\/c\u00f3 qua c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 khung th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ecdn l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 ng\u1eafn v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p). \u0110\u00e3 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u tranh c\u00e3i xoay quanh ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed9 d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a khung th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p\/c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i \u1edf \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadt linh tr\u01b0\u1edfng. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t r\u1eb1ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c lo\u00e0i linh tr\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ec9 cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00fang \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh vi ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c ho\u1eb7c tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a kh\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea7u ch\u00f3 Chacma c\u00e1i (Papio cynocephalus ursinus<\/em>) v\u00e0 kh\u1ec9 Samango (Cercopithecus mitis<\/em>\u00a0erythrarchus) m\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i vi\u1ec7c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn, v\u00e0 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c lo\u00e0i \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadt c\u00f3 x\u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ed1ng kh\u00e1c, c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 trao \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng ngay t\u1ee9c th\u00ec. Nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 kh\u00e1c l\u1ea1i tin r\u1eb1ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p c\u00f2n di\u1ec5n ra trong m\u1ed9t khung th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan s\u00e1t \u1edf kh\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea7u ch\u00f3 Olive c\u00e1i (Papio anubis<\/em>), kh\u1ec9 macaque bonnet (Macaca radiata<\/em>), c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 kh\u1ec9 m\u0169 m\u1eb7t tr\u1eafng (tufted and white-faced capuchin, Cebus capucinus<\/em>) khi nh\u1eefng lo\u00e0i n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng (t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng trong m\u1ed9t t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9c nh\u1ea5t, do \u0111\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa vi\u1ec7c cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn kh\u00f4ng g\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng 1). Tuy nhi\u00ean, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a bi\u1ebft li\u1ec7u nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ec9 t\u1eadp trung nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00e1c khung th\u1eddi gian h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p m\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn nh\u1ea7m l\u1eabn v\u1ec1 kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch th\u1eddi gian gi\u1eefa vi\u1ec7c cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn, hay l\u00e0 do nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c lo\u00e0i.<\/p>\nV\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u00e0nh vi l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u khung th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p v\u00ec c\u00e1c lo\u00e0i linh tr\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p n\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trao \u0111\u1ed5i ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c ho\u1eb7c qua c\u00e1c khung th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n. V\u00ec vi\u1ec7c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u0111em l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch cho \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ebfp nh\u1eadn v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ph\u00ed t\u1ed5n\/t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cho \u0111i, n\u00ean n\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 c\u00f3 ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5<\/em> c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cung c\u1ea5p cho \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1c. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ph\u00ed t\u1ed5n bao g\u1ed3m t\u00ednh c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c c\u00f9ng th\u1eddi gian ngh\u1ec9 ng\u01a1i b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt, ch\u01b0a k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb l\u00e2y truy\u1ec1n vi sinh v\u1eadt k\u00ed sinh. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00e2y v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t “m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng” c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i \u0111\u1ec3 trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00ec nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ebfp nh\u1eadn. V\u00ec ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng gi\u00fap lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf k\u00ed sinh tr\u00f9ng, n\u00ean n\u00f3 cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch v\u1ec1 v\u1ec7 sinh, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u00f2n k\u00edch th\u00edch vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n sinh\/gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng \u03b2-endorphin v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m nh\u1ecbp tim, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch gi\u1ea3i t\u1ecfa c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng kh\u00e1c. Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 ho\u1eb7c ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 trong c\u00e1c m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn c\u01a1 ch\u1ee7 v\u1eadn, th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m, giao ph\u1ed1i, v.v.,) ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ea1i ch\u00ednh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng v\u00ec nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch v\u1ec7 sinh n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p\/c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng duy nh\u1ea5t. N\u1ebfu ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p, c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n cho nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean nh\u1ea5t cho ch\u00fang, v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o khung th\u1eddi gian c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i, ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u1edbp th\u1eddi gian trong m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n\/l\u01b0\u1ee3t, m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y (t\u1eeb gi\u1edd tr\u1edf \u0111i s\u1ebd g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n).<\/p>\nT\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn nay m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 v\u00e0i nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u00edt \u1ecfi v\u1ec1 khung th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u00e0y l\u1ea1i t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c lo\u00e0i kh\u1ec9 m\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thi\u1ebfu kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. Do \u0111\u00f3, tinh tinh (Pan troglodytes<\/em>), \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh l\u00e0 c\u00f3 k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c cao, l\u00e0 lo\u00e0i ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t cho vi\u1ec7c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec1 t\u00e0i n\u00e0y. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, tinh tinh c\u0169ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng r\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean; ch\u00fang s\u1ed1ng theo t\u1eebng nh\u00f3m\/b\u1ea7y \u0111\u00e0n x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i l\u1edbn v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c trao \u0111\u1ed5i ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn; v\u00e0 ch\u00fang c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t-ph\u00e2n h\u1ea1ch (fission-fusion), cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c c\u1eb7p\/\u0111\u00f4i t\u00e1ch ra kh\u1ecfi \u0111\u00e0n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh vi h\u1eefu \u00edch tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb can thi\u1ec7p b\u1edfi c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u1edf tinh tinh \u0111\u1ef1c hoang d\u00e3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh l\u00e0 mang t\u00ednh c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i; tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng cho \u0111i v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp nh\u1eadn l\u1ea1i kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c qu\u1ea7n th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c nhau. Ngo\u00e0i ra, s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u1edf c\u00e1c c\u1eb7p tinh tinh c\u00e1i trong t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 gi\u1edbi t\u00ednh ph\u00e2n t\u00e1n nh\u01b0ng tinh tinh c\u00e1i v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n quan tr\u1ecdng trong cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a \u0111\u00e0n, h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh n\u00ean nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i li\u00ean k\u1ebft x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i b\u1ec1n ch\u1eb7t v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean kh\u00e1c trong \u0111\u00e0n. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch th\u1eddi gian gi\u1eefa vi\u1ec7c cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 \u1edf lo\u00e0i n\u00e0y. C\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadt linh tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u00e0 xem x\u00e9t khung th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh theo d\u00f5i ti\u00eau \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ea3 ngay v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, do \u0111\u00f3 m\u00e0 ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i trong su\u1ed1t m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y. Ngo\u00e0i ra, \u0111\u1ec3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u xem li\u1ec7u ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p c\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra trong nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9c nh\u1ea5t ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y hay kh\u00f4ng, c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c cho t\u1eebng c\u1eb7p v\u00e0 tr\u00e1nh t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 sai t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p m\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p trong c\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n\u0110\u1ec3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u xem li\u1ec7u ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i \u1edf c\u1ea3 tinh tinh hoang d\u00e3 \u0111\u1ef1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1i hay kh\u00f4ng c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u khung th\u1eddi gian di\u1ec5n ra vi\u1ec7c cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng 3.000 gi\u1edd thu th\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111o t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng theo s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m v\u00e0 trong c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i (i) \u0111\u00e3 thu th\u1eadp c\u00e1c m\u1eabu ti\u00eau \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ea3 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a c\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng, vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00fang t\u00f4i x\u00e1c minh li\u1ec7u c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ngay t\u1ee9c th\u1eddi hay kh\u00f4ng, (ii) s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng cho \u0111i v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn v\u1ec1, nh\u1edd \u0111\u00f3 m\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft thay th\u1ebf kh\u00e1c v\u1ec1 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p\/t\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ed7\/c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean, (iii) s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c theo d\u00f5i c\u1ea3 ng\u00e0y li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng theo c\u1eb7p trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 (iv) nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ea3 hai gi\u1edbi t\u00ednh, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o tinh tinh \u0111\u1ef1c. N\u1ebfu tinh tinh \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng trong \u0111\u00fang m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ed9c nh\u1ea5t ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y, th\u00ec c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c s\u1ebd thay th\u1ebf\/lu\u00e2n phi\u00ean vai tr\u00f2 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cho \u0111i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ebfp nh\u1eadn trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0y, \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng trao \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. \u0110a s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng l\u1ea7n v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng\/li\u1ebfm l\u00f4ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 hai chi\u1ec1u v\u00e0\/ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c s\u1ebd c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m sau \u0111\u00f3 trong ng\u00e0y. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ghi nh\u1edb nh\u1eefng l\u1ea7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i qua nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n g\u1eb7p g\u1ee1, th\u00ec ch\u00fang s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n thay th\u1ebf vai tr\u00f2 trong m\u1ed7i m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n di\u1ec5n ra ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y. Do \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mang t\u00ednh \u0111\u01a1n h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u1ea7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i s\u1ebd c\u00e2n x\u1ee9ng h\u01a1n khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111o theo c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n
<\/span>T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p<\/span><\/h2>\n(a) Thu th\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u h\u00e0nh vi<\/u><\/p>\n
T\u1eeb n\u0103m 2003-2006, C.M.G \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh l\u1ea5y m\u1eabu tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m c\u1ea3 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi tinh tinh hoang d\u00e3 tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh, t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o ch\u00edn con c\u00e1i v\u00e0 n\u0103m con \u0111\u1ef1c tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e0n ph\u00eda Nam c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n tinh tinh Ta\u00ef \u1edf B\u1edd Bi\u1ec3n Ng\u00e0. Khi m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u thu th\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, \u0111\u00e0n ph\u00eda Nam bao g\u1ed3m 44 c\u00e1 th\u1ec3: 8 con \u0111\u1ef1c (5 tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh, 3 ch\u01b0a tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh); 16 con c\u00e1i (14 tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh, 2 ch\u01b0a tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh); v\u00e0 20 con non v\u00e0 s\u01a1 sinh, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0m quen v\u1edbi nhau. Xuy\u00ean su\u1ed1t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u, m\u1ed9t con \u0111\u1ef1c tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh v\u00e0 ba con c\u00e1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t t\u00edch ho\u1eb7c m\u1ea5t m\u1ea1ng, v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n nh\u1eadp c\u01b0 n\u00e0o. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u1ee9 b\u1eadc r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t, ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0n n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb c\u1ea1nh tranh \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n
D\u1eef li\u1ec7u tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m c\u1ea3 ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i c\u1eb7p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c T. Deschner, N.O. Daurid v\u00e0 C. Bol\u00e9 thu th\u1eadp t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1999-2001. Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y, c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ea7y \u0111\u00e0n ph\u00eda Nam g\u1ed3m c\u00f3 3 con \u0111\u1ef1c tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh v\u00e0 19 con c\u00e1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 nh\u1eefng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thu th\u1eadp g\u1ea7n 2 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1eabn t\u1ef1 tin r\u1eb1ng t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c c\u1eb7p kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00ec s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1eabn t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh (t\u1eeb 19-22 c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh).<\/p>\n
(b) Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea<\/u><\/p>\n
Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed7n h\u1ee3p tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh t\u1ed5ng qu\u00e1t (GLMM) v\u1edbi c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac l\u1ed7i Gaussian \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00ednh c\u00e2n x\u1ee9ng gi\u1eefa vi\u1ec7c cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i h\u01a1n nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u1ec3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u t\u00ednh c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i\/t\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ed7 \u1edf \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadt (gi\u1ea3 d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ho\u00e1n v\u1ecb ma tr\u1eadn) v\u00ec n\u00f3 cho ph\u00e9p ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh (t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn trung b\u00ecnh) v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean (c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai). Vi\u1ec7c bao g\u1ed3m nhi\u1ec1u hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00fang t\u00f4i nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eadn, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t\/\u0111\u1ed1i ch\u1ee9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn g\u00e2y nhi\u1ec5u ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng kh\u00e1c m\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1ea3 m\u1ea1o gi\u1eefa ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn n\u00e0y, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 ki\u1ec3m nghi\u1ec7m nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch thay th\u1ebf cho kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ed7\/c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u1ed1i ch\u1ee9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp, nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng quan s\u00e1t l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00f9ng c\u00e1 th\u1ec3. GLMM \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng R cho \u0111i\u1ec7n to\u00e1n th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea b\u1eb1ng g\u00f3i LME4 phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n 0.9975-13.<\/p>\n
\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng chung c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 khung ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n\/ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng\/ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh m\u1ed3i phi tham s\u1ed1 (non-parametric bootstrapping). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00fang t\u00f4i x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh r\u1ed7ng\/kh\u00f4ng (c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 bao g\u1ed3m h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 ch\u1eb7n c\u00f9ng danh t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cho v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1eadn) \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n tin c\u1eady c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i, ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a\/\u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. \u0110\u1ec3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u xem li\u1ec7u m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 thi\u1ebfu \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00ec t\u00ednh \u0111a c\u1ed9ng tuy\u1ebfn (multicollinearity) gi\u1eefa hai ho\u1eb7c nhi\u1ec1u bi\u1ebfn d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o hay kh\u00f4ng, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n\/kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng 1000 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec3 thu th\u1eadp c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 tham s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng bi\u1ebfn d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ri\u00eang l\u1ebb. Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00fang t\u00f4i x\u00e1c minh r\u1eb1ng kho\u1ea3ng tin c\u1eady (CI) cho nh\u1eefng \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh tham s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 nh\u1ecf v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 0, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng cho m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng\/\u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u1ecf c\u1ee7a t\u00ednh \u0111a c\u1ed9ng tuy\u1ebfn. V\u00ec c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p \u0111o k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n v\u1edbi GLMM, n\u00ean ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch so s\u00e1nh ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n AIC (ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n th\u00f4ng tin Akaike) c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh r\u00fat g\u1ecdn m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bao g\u1ed3m bi\u1ebfn quan t\u00e2m, v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ki\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7-kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9c nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n
(c) Th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh<\/u><\/p>\n
M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng v\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi sau \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n
\n- Bi\u1ebfn ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng<\/em>. C\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i\/chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i logarit (log-transformed value) c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n v\u1ec7 sinh\/li\u1ebfm l\u00f4ng m\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p cho \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1c (theo gi\u00e2y).<\/li>\n
- Bi\u1ebfn d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n\/d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/em>. Ngo\u00e0i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eadn, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn m\u00e0 c\u00f3 ho\u1eb7c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eadn, M\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1ea3 gi\u1eefa hai bi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t sinh n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng (c\u00f9ng th\u1ee9 h\u1ea1ng, \u0111\u1ed9 tu\u1ed5i ho\u1eb7c gi\u1edbi t\u00ednh) ho\u1eb7c nh\u1eefng c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn nhau th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng cho nhau nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c nhau ho\u1eb7c \u00edt li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn nhau h\u01a1n (v\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng v\u00e0 th\u1ee9 b\u1eadc, tu\u1ed5i, gi\u1edbi t\u00ednh ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed1i li\u00ean k\u1ebft). Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh 5 hi\u1ec7p bi\u1ebfn li\u00ean t\u1ee5c v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i\/x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c\/ph\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i.<\/li>\n
- V\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eadn (gi\u00e2y).<\/em> C\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i logarit c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng m\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eadn. \u0110\u1ec3 x\u00e1c minh r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t trong th\u1eddi gian quan s\u00e1t c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea1y m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn (t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n\/m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng trong m\u1ed1i li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1eddi gian c\u1ea3 hai c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan s\u00e1t) v\u00e0 thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n.<\/li>\n
- Th\u1ee9 b\u1eadc c\u1ee7a c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cho v\u00e0 c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn.<\/em> Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ti\u1ebfng ch\u00e0o. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u00e2n c\u1ea5p l\u00e0 tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh (ki\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ecbnh tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n: h’<\/em> = 0,94, p<\/em> = 0,0001), v\u1edbi to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 tinh tinh \u0111\u1ef1c th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 tin tinh c\u00e1i, v\u00e0 n\u00f3 v\u1eabn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh xuy\u00ean xu\u1ed1t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh thu th\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch hai l\u1ea7n, m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n v\u1edbi th\u1ee9 h\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cho v\u00e0 l\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi th\u1ee9 b\u1eadc c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1eadn, v\u00ec th\u00f4ng tin thu th\u1eadp \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eeb hai bi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t th\u1ee9 h\u1ea1ng l\u00e0 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba (xem ph\u1ea7n d\u01b0\u1edbi)<\/p>\n
\n- Kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t th\u1ee9 h\u1ea1ng.<\/em> S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa th\u1ee9 h\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cho v\u00e0 c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch tu\u1ed5i. <\/em>S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i gi\u1eefa tu\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cho v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1eadn.<\/li>\n
- Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 li\u00ean k\u1ebft theo c\u1eb7p (DAI).<\/em> DAI \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn ph\u00e1p \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t hai c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi nhau (c\u00f3 m\u1eb7t trong c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m\/b\u00ean). N\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n theo c\u00e1ch sau:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
DAIij=TijTi+Tj\u2212Tij,<\/p>\n
trong \u0111\u00f3 Ti<\/sub> <\/em>l\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 i<\/em> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan s\u00e1t; Tj<\/sub><\/em> l\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 j<\/em> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan s\u00e1t th\u1ea5y; v\u00e0 Tij<\/sub><\/em> \u00a0<\/em>l\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n i<\/em> v\u00e0 j<\/em> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5t trong c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m\/b\u00ean.<\/p>\n\n- S\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p gi\u1edbi t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u1eb7p. <\/em>Gi\u1edbi t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a hai c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 li\u00ean quan v\u00e0o t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn ph\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1edbi b\u1ed1n c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 (\u2642\u2642, \u2640\u2640, \u2642\u2640, \u2640\u2642, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 ba bi\u1ebfn d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00e3 h\u00f3a gi\u1ea3.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
\n- B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u1edf tr\u00ean m\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u00f2n bao g\u1ed3m danh t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cho v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1eadn nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean. Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 trong xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng\/h\u00e0nh vi nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh (v\u00ed c\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng cho c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
(d) Khung th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng<\/u><\/p>\n
\u0110\u1ec3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch th\u1eddi gian gi\u1eefa vi\u1ec7c cho \u0111i v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3n nh\u1eadn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111o t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng theo s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n, trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m v\u00e0 qua c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n
(i) Chi ti\u1ebft v\u1ec1 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch theo s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n<\/em><\/p>\nM\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n (bout) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a nh\u01b0 kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian di\u1ec5n ra t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng gi\u1eefa hai c\u00e1 th\u1ec3, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 h\u00e0nh vi n\u00e0o, v\u00e0 k\u1ebft th\u00fac khi c\u1ea3 hai c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 d\u1eebng li\u1ebfm l\u00f4ng\/v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng trong h\u01a1n 85 gi\u00e2y. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ch\u1ecdn th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y l\u00e0m gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec3 xem x\u00e9t hai s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng l\u1ea7n t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 85 gi\u00e2y.<\/p>\n
Trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a m\u1ed9t tham s\u1ed1 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan th\u1eddi gian nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7p bi\u1ebfn b\u1ed5 sung v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh, \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t\/\u0111\u1ed1i ch\u1ee9ng v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra g\u1ea7n nhau. Hi\u1ec7p bi\u1ebfn t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n gia quy\u1ec1n\/trung b\u00ecnh c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a ph\u1ea7n d\u01b0\/s\u1ed1 d\u01b0 (t\u1eeb m\u1eabu \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng bao g\u1ed3m tham s\u1ed1 t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan), v\u1edbi tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch th\u1eddi gian ngh\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea3o gi\u1eefa hai l\u1ea7n v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng. \u0110\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n hi\u1ec7p bi\u1ebfn t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cho m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t c\u1eb7p v\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb ph\u1ea7n d\u01b0 c\u1ee7a \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y. Tuy nhi\u00ean, tham s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3\/kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a (t<\/em> = 0,27, p <\/em>= 0,34), ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng, v\u00e0 v\u00ec th\u1ebf n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eef l\u1ea1i trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o.<\/p>\n(ii) Chi ti\u1ebft v\u1ec1 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch trong ng\u00e0y<\/em><\/p>\nCh\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng m\u00e0 m\u1ed7i c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 ti\u00eau \u0111i\u1ec3m cho \u0111i v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn l\u1ea1i m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y, v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u1eebng s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng c\u1eb7p l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u. Trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 bao g\u1ed3m m\u1ed9t tham s\u1ed1 t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan th\u1eddi gian h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7p bi\u1ebfn b\u1ed5 sung v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh, \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y g\u1ea7n nhau. Tuy nhi\u00ean, tham s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (t<\/em> = 1,12, p<\/em> = 0,27), \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y, do \u0111\u00f3 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eef l\u1ea1i trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o.<\/p>\n(iii) Chi ti\u1ebft v\u1ec1 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n theo c\u1eb7p<\/em><\/p>\n\u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u xem c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c c\u1eb7p c\u00f3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh theo th\u1eddi gian hay kh\u00f4ng. \u0110\u1ec3 l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i chia b\u1ed9 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh th\u00e0nh s\u00e1u giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kh\u00e1c nhau, m\u1ed7i giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u1eeb 3-4 th\u00e1ng. Sau \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan\/ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p, m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ri\u00eang r\u1ebd v\u1edbi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cung c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp nh\u1eadn, s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng \u0111\u00f4i v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i c\u1eb7p giai \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ma tr\u1eadn. Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trung b\u00ecnh p<\/em> = 0,4 v\u00e0 p<\/em> = 0,005 cho th\u1ea5y r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng r\u1eb1ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u1edf c\u00e1c \u0111\u00f4i v\u1eabn t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong su\u1ed1t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n quan s\u00e1t. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng trong 7, 11, 15, 19, v\u00e0 22 th\u00e1ng, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p v\u00e0o b\u1ed9 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u. Trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y, kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch theo s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n hay ph\u00e2n t\u00edch theo ng\u00e0y, s\u1ef1 bao qu\u00e1t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng gia t\u0103ng khi c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u01a1n (t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p v\u00e0o t\u1eebng \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gia t\u0103ng theo th\u1eddi gian quan s\u00e1t). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00fang t\u00f4i x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1ed9 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh chu\u1ea9n x\u00e1c v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng (ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u1ea7n bao nhi\u00eau th\u00e1ng thu th\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 theo t\u1eebng c\u1eb7p \u0111\u1ec3 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh n\u00e0y \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh).<\/p>\n(iv) Chi ti\u1ebft v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c so s\u00e1nh c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng khung th\u1eddi gian kh\u00e1c nhau<\/em><\/p>\nVi\u1ec7c k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p t\u1eebng c\u1eb7p \u0111\u00f4i c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cho-\u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1eadn v\u00e0 l\u1ea7n ho\u1eb7c ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u trong c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch theo s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n v\u00e0 theo ng\u00e0y, c\u00f2n m\u1ed7i m\u1ed9t c\u1eb7p c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 cho-\u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1eadn l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n theo c\u1eb7p. V\u00ec ch\u00fang t\u00f4i quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch th\u1eddi gian gi\u1eefa vi\u1ec7c cho v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng, v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e0o th\u1ea3i ho\u1eb7c giao ho\u00e1n\/thay th\u1ebf l\u1eabn nhau \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng kh\u00e1c, nh\u01b0 trong c\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kh\u00e1c, n\u00ean ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 bao g\u1ed3m nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u00e0 trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ea3 hai c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec1u v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng. Do \u0111\u00f3, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch theo s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch theo ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n theo c\u1eb7p \u1edf ch\u1ed7 s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u01a1n h\u01b0\u1edbng kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch theo s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bao g\u1ed3m trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch theo ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n theo c\u1eb7p. Ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o hai ki\u1ec3u ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y khi c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p qua l\u1ea1i trong c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c c\u1eb7p v\u00ec c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u1eb7p lu\u00e2n phi\u00ean hai vai tr\u00f2 “\u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng” v\u00e0 “\u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng” v\u00e0o b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 l\u00fac n\u00e0o trong ng\u00e0y, ho\u1eb7c v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n theo c\u1eb7p. Tuy nhi\u00ean, khi \u0111\u01b0a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch, c\u00e1c ki\u1ec3u m\u1eabu\/m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh v\u1eabn gi\u1ed1ng h\u1ec7t nhau v\u1ec1 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i l\u00e0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p n\u1ebfu x\u00e9t v\u1ec1 \u00fd ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c bao g\u1ed3m s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u01a1n h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch theo s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i l\u1ea1i v\u1eabn th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng v\u00ec vi\u1ec7c bao g\u1ed3m n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p theo s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi hai ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kia. \u0110\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh xem nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t\/ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch trong t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng gi\u1eefa t\u1eebng khung th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3\/c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea hay kh\u00f4ng, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n CI cho t\u1eebng \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng. Sau \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i x\u00e1c minh xem CI gi\u1eefa m\u1ed7i m\u1ed9t c\u1eb7p \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 tr\u00f9ng l\u1eb7p, v\u00e0 li\u1ec7u CI c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t\/ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa t\u1eebng c\u1eb7p c\u00f3 bao g\u1ed3m s\u1ed1 0 hay kh\u00f4ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t\/ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa c\u1eb7p \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p>\n
Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 ki\u1ec3m tra xem li\u1ec7u t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gia t\u0103ng do c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p v\u00e0o t\u1eebng \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u h\u01a1n hay kh\u00f4ng, b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ho\u00e1n v\u1ecb\/\u0111\u1ed5i tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n v\u1ec7 sinh l\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cung c\u1ea5p trong b\u1ed9 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n theo c\u1eb7p v\u00e0 t\u0103ng d\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ho\u00e1n v\u1ecb ma tr\u1eadn nh\u01b0 trong m\u1ed9t ki\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ecbnh Mantel v\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p\/c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i cho m\u1ed7i m\u1ed9t ho\u00e1n v\u1ecb b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 d\u00f9ng v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u g\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n